The International Energy Agency has released a special report on the future of natural gas as part of the global energy mix, outlining what it describes as the ‘Golden Age of Gas Scenario’, or the GAS Scenario.

 

Under the scenario, the report predicts that the share of natural gas in the global energy mix will increase from the current 2.1% to 25% in 2035, pushing the share of coal into decline and overtaking it by 2030.

 

While the report sees gas demand expanding in all regions, non-OECD countries were expected to account for nearly 80% of the total increase to 2035, placing a premium on their adoption of gas-fired technologies.

 

The report concluded that global natural gas resources could comfortably supply the demand well into the future.

 

“The largest existing producers are expected to meet much of the increase in demand in the GAS Scenario, but they will be joined by China as it becomes one of the world’s largest gas producers, although to satisfy rising demand, imports will also be needed.

 

The strongest centres of growth in natural gas production are expected to be the Middle East, Russia, Caspian, North America, China and Africa.

 

Unconventional gas would meet more than 40% of the increase in demand, with most unconventional gas coming from North America, China and Australia. However, these projects were uncertain due to complex issues relating to unconventional gas production.

 

The report predicts that net exports of LNG from Australia will quadruple to over 100 bcm by 2035, with 50 bcm of LNG capacity coming online by 2016. These exports will go predominantly to Asia.

 

The report notes that while natural gas is a cleaner source of energy than other fossil fuels, an increased share of natural gas in the global energy mix would be nowhere near enough to reduce carbon emissions to meet an annual global temperature rise of no more than two degrees celcius.

 

The full report is available here.