Slow growth hits EBAs
Slow wage growth has been locked into recent enterprise bargaining agreements.
The average annual wage increase (AAWI) in new EBAs in the first quarter of 2019 was 2.7 per cent – down from a 3.2 per cent AAWI increase in the third quarter of 2018.
Wage rises weakened in both the public and private sectors, with private sector EBA pay rises down from 3 to 2.9 per cent over the March quarter, and the public sector seeing a 0.3 percentage point drop from 2.7 to 2.4 per cent.
It is a long way from the 3.5 per cent outcome the Reserve Bank wants.
“With EBA's standard practice being three-year agreements, new ones locking in lower outcomes point to slowing wage growth,” ANZ economist Catherine Birch told the ABC.
“This suggests that the gradual improvement we have seen in wages since 2017 may falter, particularly given the recent rise in underutilisation, supporting the need for another rate cut in 2019.
“The reversal in the direction of wage growth across the EBA and GDP measures suggests that the gradual improvement we have seen in the wage price index could fade.”