Key emissions hit new height
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Fossil fuel emissions have reached record levels despite overall CO₂ output stabilising.
The Global Carbon Budget 2024, released at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, reveals a 0.8 per cent increase in fossil fuel CO₂ emissions compared to 2023, projecting 37.4 billion tonnes of emissions this year alone.
The report, a collaborative effort by leading international organisations, including CSIRO, shows the significant role of fossil fuels, which account for 94 per cent of all global CO₂ emissions.
Coal represents 41 per cent of fossil fuel emissions, followed by oil (32 per cent) and gas (21 per cent).
China, the largest emitter, contributes 32 per cent of global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions, ahead of the United States (13 per cent), India (8 per cent), and the European Union (7 per cent).
While total CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and land-use changes have stabilised over the past decade, emissions from deforestation and land-use changes have risen in 2024. Land-use emissions had seen a 20 per cent average decline over the previous ten years.
Australia recorded a 0.4 per cent reduction in fossil fuel emissions in 2023, with further decreases expected.
Conversely, the resilience of natural carbon sinks, such as forests, has been compromised by events like Amazon droughts and Canadian wildfires.
“The CO₂ sinks have begun to recover, but the data underscores how vulnerable they are to droughts and extreme heat, which are increasing with global warming,” said CSIRO’s Dr Pep Canadell.
By the end of 2024, CO₂ concentrations are predicted to reach 422.5 parts per million, a 52 per cent increase from pre-industrial levels.
The findings suggest the world is at risk of surpassing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming target within six years, without a significant emissions downturn.
